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Bihar Polls: NDA Rift, JDU–LJP Standoff, and a Seat-Sharing Chessboard No One Has Solved Yet

Tense negotiations, canceled press meets, and frayed tempers have made the Bihar election season feel like a pressure cooker. Both alliances, the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, are stuck on seat-sharing, and the clock is ticking as nominations move forward. This post breaks down what is holding each camp back, why these tussles matter, and what to watch as the seat map takes shape. If you want to understand the stakes, keep reading. The Bihar elections are about arithmetic, alliances, and trust.

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Why This Election Already Feels High Stakes

The last 24 hours have underlined how delicate both alliances are. A press conference expected to settle everything on seats was called off at the last minute. It tells a simple story. Numbers are not the only problem, trust is too.

• Within the NDA, JDU and LJP are still circling each other warily.
• In the Mahagathbandhan, Congress is pushing hard for seats while holding back on projecting Tejashwi Yadav as the clear CM face.
• Smaller allies on both sides want their due, and they are saying it out loud.

Inside the NDA: JDU–LJP Is the Burning Core

The sharpest conflict inside the NDA is between Nitish Kumar’s JDU and Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas). Analysts trace it to 2020. LJP fought separately and targeted JDU candidates, which hurt JDU in dozens of seats. Those wounds have not healed.

This time, the tussle is over two linked issues:

• How many seats each party gets.
• Which seats each party gets.

The second part is where sparks are flying. LJP is pushing to field loyalists who stood by Chirag Paswan after the party split, when a major chunk moved to his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras. Some in JDU believe that episode had their rivals’ fingerprints on it. That memory is shaping today’s negotiations.

BJP’s central leadership is seen as the referee with enough clout to close the deal. Insiders expect a resolution soon, but the optics are bad. A showcase press event was canceled an hour before it was due. The message to voters and cadre is confusion, and the nomination window is already open.

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It’s Not Just LJP: Smaller NDA Allies Want More

It is not a two-party negotiation anymore. Smaller partners in the NDA, including parties often referred to as HUM or HAM and RLM, believe they are being shortchanged relative to their community base.

• RLM is said to represent the Kushwaha community, pegged around 4% in share.
• HAM (Hindustani Awam Morcha), linked to the Manjhi community, claims a significant, though smaller, share close to 3%.
• The Paswan community, around 5%, is seen as getting a much larger share of seats for LJP.

This isn’t an abstract fight. In Bihar, communities form the backbone of mobilization. If one ally gets a perceived windfall relative to its base, others see it as a slight. That sentiment translates to tough negotiations or even “friendly fights” in select constituencies, where allies quietly field rebels. Expect a few of these in both NDA and Mahagathbandhan if the seat deals leave bruises.

Quick snapshot: community claims that fuel NDA friction

These numbers are part of the negotiation backdrop, not a formal census metric. The key point is perception. If one partner looks favored, others push back.

The Numbers vs the Map: “Who Gets What” Matters More

Analysts suggest the NDA has mostly agreed on the rough count of seats for major partners. The tug of war is over the map. Which party gets which constituency can decide the fate of leaders, the texture of campaigns, and morale on the ground.

For LJP, this is also about paying back loyalists with winnable seats, including organizational posts or influential positions that reward those who did not switch sides during the party’s split. JDU leaders, holding old grievances, do not make that easy.

The BJP, with its central authority and election machinery, is expected to iron out remaining wrinkles. Expect fast movement, since the second round of nominations is already rolling and the last date cited in discussions is the 17th.

Mahagathbandhan’s Knot: Congress Wants More, Without a Full Tejashwi Nod

The opposition bloc faces a different kind of gridlock. Congress is asking for a sizable seat share despite a weak strike rate in 2020. Analysts argue that a 50 to 55 seat demand would look balanced given past performance, yet Congress is reportedly pushing for around 60.

There’s another sticking point. Congress appears hesitant to give an unambiguous public endorsement of Tejashwi Yadav as the CM face, at least for now. That creates doubt in the voter’s mind and tension inside the alliance.

Two strategic risks emerge for the bloc:

• If RJD contests fewer than around 150 seats, the alliance might suffer because RJD’s core vote does not always transfer cleanly to allies.
• If more smaller partners are added late, the pool of viable seats shrinks, and friction rises, often at the expense of RJD or Congress.

The VIP factor is also complicating talks. Analysts describe it as not fully trustworthy for tight alliance discipline, which raises concerns about post-seat allocation cohesion.

The Transferability Problem That Haunts Alliances

Seat-sharing deals are not just arithmetic. They are also about chemistry between voter bases. The RJD’s core support does not seamlessly move to non-RJD candidates, especially in close contests. If the Mahagathbandhan allocates too many seats to allies with weaker ground networks, it might blunt its own edge.

On paper, broad alliances look strong. On the ground, they depend on efficient vote transfers. That works best when the dominant party gets a large share of winnable seats and the partners pick pockets where they truly add value.

Congress’s Bargaining Chips: Seats, Status, and Social Reach

Congress is reportedly negotiating not only on seat count but also on positions, such as a deputy chief minister post, to enhance its standing. There is a social logic here. Without a clear leadership slot, the party may struggle to attract segments like the Ravidas community or other Dalit groups, where symbolic representation matters.

There’s also a worry in the bloc about how corruption allegations and dynastic politics narratives might affect swing voters. Young, educated, and middle-class voters who moved away from NDA in the national contest would need a clear reason to back the Mahagathbandhan in the state race. If they see the alliance as tainted or confused about leadership, they may hesitate.

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Deadlines and Delays: Time Pressure Is Real

The nomination process has already moved to its second round, and the window to finalize seat-sharing is narrowing. Leaders know that delay creates risk. Candidates need time to set up booths, brief workers, and calibrate messages for local castes and communities. A last-minute seat swap can stall momentum.

A canceled press conference did not help. It seemed designed to signal unity and clarity. Instead, it became a public reminder that big gaps remain.

Friendly Fights Are Likely, On Both Sides

When allies feel aggrieved, they often field unofficial candidates. You might hear these called “friendly fights,” though they are anything but friendly in practice. They split votes, dent margins, and sometimes flip seats. Given how sensitive both alliances are feeling, expect a few such flare-ups.

Two triggers increase that risk:

• A perceived imbalance between social base and seat share.
• Late distribution of tickets that leaves key supporters without roles.

What to Watch Next

• Final NDA formula: The total seat counts may be close to settled, but the constituency map will tell you who won the internal negotiation.
• JDU–LJP truce terms: Look for signals on which LJP loyalists get tickets and whether JDU can live with the allocations.
• Congress’s final number: If Congress gets near 60 seats, tension with RJD is likely to persist. If it settles closer to mid-50s, the alliance may breathe easier.
• Tejashwi projection: A clear CM face can focus the campaign. Mixed signals can stall momentum.
• Rebel candidates: Track districts with history of rebel runs, especially where allies feel shortchanged.

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The Bigger Picture: Alliances Win When Voters See Clarity

Elections turn on swing seats and swing voters. Clarity of leadership, a believable seat map, and team discipline all matter. Both alliances still have paths to a clean rollout, but time is their enemy.

• NDA needs to convert its central leverage into local peace between JDU and LJP, while keeping smaller allies on board.
• Mahagathbandhan needs to resolve the Congress–RJD equation, project Tejashwi decisively or explain an alternative, and assign seats in a way that actually moves votes on the ground.

In Bihar, math without chemistry rarely wins. Chemistry without math rarely shows up in the final tally.

Conclusion

Seat-sharing is where campaigns become real. The NDA’s JDU–LJP standoff is about trust and turf, while the Mahagathbandhan’s friction is about ambition and leadership. The next few days will decide if either camp can shape a map that its voters understand and accept. Watch for final lists, rebels, and signals from top leadership. In a race this tight, clarity is a campaign’s best friend.

For continuing coverage, interviews, and live analysis, visit the India Today website and follow updates as the nominations progress.