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Trump’s 100% Tariff Proposal on India and China: How the Plan Pressures Russia Over Ukraine

Trump is now pushing the European Union to levy up to 100% tariffs on imports from China and India, aiming to stop the flow of money helping Russia fund its war in Ukraine. Washington wants Europe on board, arguing that hitting China and India—the two biggest buyers of Russian oil—is the fastest way to pressure Moscow. The US has already raised import taxes on certain Indian goods, and Trump says he’ll double down if the EU joins in.

This proposal marks a shift from the usual playbook of direct sanctions, focusing instead on the countries keeping Russia’s oil business alive. As leaders search for new ways to curb Russia’s war chest, this coordinated tariff approach has sparked urgent debate across capitals. For many, the outcome could reshape global trade and set the tone for how the West responds to conflict and energy ties in the years ahead.

Why Target India and China? The Role of Russian Oil

Since the Ukraine war escalated, Russia has faced sweeping Western sanctions. Moscow turned to Asia to keep its oil exports moving and cash flowing. Two countries stepped up: India and China. They now buy most of Russia’s oil exports, driving record trade figures and locking in new alliances. Washington sees their purchases as the main lifeline funding Russia’s war effort. That’s why Trump’s 100% tariff push puts India and China right in the crosshairs.

India: From Minor Buyer to Oil Powerhouse

Before 2022, India bought a tiny share of its oil from Russia. That changed overnight when sanctions hit and Russia started offering discounts. By 2024, Russian oil jumped to making up 35–40% of India’s oil imports, compared to just 3% in 2021. That’s not a small change—it’s a full-scale shift in the global oil market.

• In just two years, India’s oil imports from Russia soared to about $140 billion.
• India even overtook China as Russia’s largest oil buyer for a stretch in 2024.
• The Indian government defends these deals, saying it needs cheap, steady energy to support its massive population.

For more on the surge in Indian-Russian oil trade and its consequences, see this BBC analysis of how oil has brought Russia, China, and India closer.

China: Russia’s Top Customer

China has long been a giant in world energy. With sanctions cutting off Russian oil from the West, China snapped up as much discounted crude as possible.

• In 2023, China bought over 100 million tonnes of Russian crude, nearly 20% of its total energy imports.
• Chinese companies imported record volumes, sometimes trading oil through the so-called “shadow fleet” to avoid detection.
• The trade has only grown, making China a key partner for Moscow.

These huge inflows are detailed in coverage like Reuters’ look at China’s position as a top buyer of Russian oil.

How Russian Oil Pays for War

Oil and gas exports are the backbone of Russia’s state budget. About one out of every four rubles Moscow spends comes from fossil fuel sales. That’s billions flowing in—from India, China, and a few others—that fund the military and cover war costs in Ukraine.

Here’s why targeting India and China sits at the heart of Trump’s plan:

• Direct economic impact: Squeezing their Russian oil imports hits Russia where it hurts most: its wallet.
• No easy workaround for Moscow: If both India and China face steep tariffs, Russia has fewer options to reroute its oil sales.
• Global message: Coordinated tariffs signal a united Western front, raising pressure on any country funding Russia’s war machine.

This sense of urgency underpins Trump’s pitch to the EU for joint tariffs, as reported by Reuters.

Key Trade Figures at a Glance

Here’s a quick look at the trade numbers between Russia, India, and China (2023–2024):

(Source: Al Jazeera, Reuters, BBC analysis)

By focusing on India and China, Trump’s proposal aims to cut off the cash pipeline that keeps Russia’s war chest full. Targeting these deals could reshape global oil flows and trade ties for years to come.

Details of Trump’s Tariff Proposal and Existing US Actions

A dramatic shift is underway in how the US and its allies try to squeeze Russia’s finances. Trump is calling for “all-in” economic pressure, targeting not just Russia but the global customers—India and China—who keep Putin’s oil business alive. Here’s what you need to know about the proposal, the moves already happening, and the message Washington wants to send Europe and the world.

Image created with AI.

How Trump’s Tariff Proposal Works

Trump’s plan is simple: hit China and India with tariffs as high as 100% on everything from cars to consumer electronics, but only if the European Union jumps in too. This isn’t just symbolic—such tariffs could block or price out hundreds of billions in annual imports from both countries.

• What Trump wants: The US and EU, together, would slap 100% tariffs on all goods from India and China.
• Why the EU: Trump says US action isn’t enough unless Europe goes along. The idea is to present a united front that’s impossible for Russia to ignore.
• What’s at stake: India and China sell tech, cars, steel, and clothing to Western markets. Doubling taxes on these goods could force both nations to rethink their support for Russian oil.

For a straight look at his ask to Europe, see this report from CNBC: Trump presses European Union to impose 100% tariffs on India and China to squeeze Putin.

Existing and Threatened US Tariffs on India and China

The US hasn’t been standing still. It’s already placed steep duties on some Indian goods since early 2024, singling out products linked to oil shipments or key supply chains.

• Indian goods: Tariffs up to 50% on select imports, with a special “Russia adjustment” penalty on refined fuels that traces back to Russian crude.
• China: The US keeps its post-2018 tariffs active, with tight restrictions on tech, machinery, and steel. Trump is pushing to expand this list if the EU joins, raising pressure that would touch nearly every Chinese export.
• Tariff threats: Trump’s message is clear—if Europe leads, the US will double down. 100% tariffs would go well beyond what either country faces today.

The BBC offers an updated look at the full Trump call for the EU to pressure Putin with tariffs.

Moving from Past Policies to Coordinated Action

What’s new is coordination. Previous US moves—sanctions, moderate tariffs, and targeted finance bans—often left gaps for Russia to exploit. By tying tariff hikes to joint EU-US action, the White House says it’s closing the loopholes and making it too costly for India and China to fund Russia’s energy industry.

• Past US approach: Standalone sanctions and tariffs, mostly focused on Russia or single industries.
• Proposed change: Mass tariffs, rolling out on both sides of the Atlantic, aimed at India, China, or any big buyer that keeps Russia’s energy flowing.
• The goal: Crank up costs and frustration for Moscow by targeting the support system outside its borders.

Bloomberg details how this shift came about in their overview: Trump floats massive tariffs on China, India to pressure Russia.

Why This Approach Matters

This isn’t just about higher prices. By calling for joint tariffs, the US is:

• Sending a warning to Moscow’s biggest customers.
• Forcing Europe to decide if it’s willing to trade economic security for higher moral ground.
• Raising the risk and cost for any country that wants to keep fueling the Russian war machine.

The push for 100% tariffs is more than a headline—it’s about trying to break the economic chain that keeps Russia’s war in Ukraine rolling.

How the European Union and Key Allies Are Responding

Trump’s idea of a 100% tariff on India and China shook the diplomatic stage in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris. EU leaders are now under the spotlight to decide whether the bloc will stand behind the US push for harsher action against Russia’s energy supporters. Their response is a mix of caution, deep debate, and a serious look at the impact on Europe’s families and industries.

Immediate Reactions from EU Leaders

When the US floated this sweeping tariff proposal, European officials didn’t race to the podium with support. Most called for more analysis and roundtables. Key leaders, like Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz and France’s President Emmanuel Macron, voiced doubt about using huge tariffs as the main weapon.

• Public caution: Diplomats said the EU must “weigh the cost to European consumers and jobs.” Germany in particular worries about “tariff retaliation” that could hit German cars and exports.
• Open disagreement: Several top officials pointed out the EU usually focuses on targeted sanctions, not broad punishment. They argue that blanket tariffs could hit the wrong targets and stir pushback at home.
• Behind closed doors: Private talks continue. Some countries (like Poland and the Baltics) quietly back tighter pressure on Russia’s allies, while others (like Italy and Greece) urge restraint to protect their economies.

This tension has played out in recent sessions of the European Council and in smaller “trialogue” meetings among Germany, France, and Poland. As Politico reported on EU internal debates, unity is far from certain.

The EU’s Current Sanctions and Their Limits

Unlike Washington’s push for tariffs, the EU’s toolkit against Russia has relied on a complex web of sanctions:

• Blocking Russian banks from SWIFT and freezing central bank assets.
• Cutting Russian coal, steel, and some tech products from the European market.
• Import bans on Russian oil delivered by sea, though pipeline oil still flows to several landlocked members.

The EU’s sanctions have made it harder and more expensive for Russia to access technology and finance. Still, loopholes remain, and Russian energy sales to India and China avoid many EU restrictions.

Calls for new tariffs come as many in Brussels push for “better enforcement” of existing sanctions rather than expanding into all-out trade wars. The current approach is detailed in the European Commission’s sanctions overview.

EU Trade With Russia Since the War

Despite sanctions, the economic ties between the EU and Russia haven’t vanished. In 2021, before the war, about 35% of the EU’s oil and over 40% of its gas came from Russia. By 2024, these numbers dropped sharply:

• Oil: Down to about 10% of imports (mainly to Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia).
• Gas: Less than 15% by mid-2024, with most suppliers turning to Norway, the US, and Qatar.

These changes have shifted the EU’s entire energy market, forcing up prices but reducing dependence on the Kremlin.

EU countries still traded nearly €80 billion in goods with Russia in 2023, mostly chemicals, machinery, and some foodstuffs, according to Eurostat.

Divisions and Hesitations Across Europe

Because the EU is a single market made up of 27 different states, any major trade move needs broad support. But there’s no solid consensus right now on Trump’s plan.

• Germany and France fear large tariffs could send Europe into recession or cost export jobs.
• The Netherlands and Belgium highlight the risk of “unintended consequences” if India and China retaliate.
• Eastern European countries, typically tougher on Russia, want to close loopholes in sanctions but haven’t called for across-the-board tariffs.

These split opinions make a fast, united EU decision unlikely. Instead, you’ll find more talk of “coordination” and “reviewing impacts” rather than firm action.

Consultations With the US and G7 Allies

Since Trump’s proposal, meetings between EU, US, and G7 leaders have picked up speed. They’re looking for a mix of pressure on Russia and ways to avoid hurting their own economies.

• US-EU Trade Council: Talks in Brussels this month focused on “alternative measures,” including stricter tech controls, not just tariffs.
• G7 Summits: Allies are debating new sanctions packages, better tracking of Russian energy, and financial penalties targeting Russian assets abroad.
• Joint statements: So far, the G7 countries have reaffirmed support for Ukraine and pledged to keep all options on the table, but stopped short of endorsing 100% tariffs for now.

You can read more on the latest G7 strategy in the Financial Times report on joint action.

Watching for Shifts: Signs of Change in Europe’s Stance

Even without broad agreement today, some signs point to a potential change in the months ahead. Pressure from Washington and war escalation could tip the balance.

• The European Commission is conducting a review on how Russia’s oil reaches global markets, and is open to new controls.
• Several EU lawmakers now call for “closer coordination” with the US against countries buying Russian oil.
• If evidence grows that sanctions alone can’t stop Russian funding, the mood in Brussels could shift toward bolder economic steps.

The weeks ahead will see more closed-door meetings, more economic studies, and no shortage of headlines. Europe’s decision on tariffs will help set the pace for Western action on the Ukraine war, even as debates inside the bloc rage on.

Global Economic Risks and Reactions from India, China, and Russia

Trump’s proposal for sweeping tariffs on India and China comes at a time when the world economy is already under strain from the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and supply disruptions. If these 100% duties become reality, they are likely to touch nearly every country and consumer—starting major shifts in global trade and realigning diplomatic partnerships. Let’s break down what’s at stake, how the big players are reacting, and what it might mean for the world’s economies.

Economic Ripple Effects Across the Globe

Tariffs on this scale don’t just affect the exporters. They send shockwaves through global supply chains, raise the cost of basic goods, and can slow down economies that are already struggling.

Here are the most likely outcomes:

• Rising consumer prices: Products from India and China, from smartphones to clothing, would get much more expensive in the US and Europe.
• Disrupted supply chains: Many companies rely on Chinese and Indian parts. Tariffs force them to scramble for new suppliers, adding months of delays and higher costs.
• Global growth risks: According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025, new trade barriers could slow worldwide economic growth and deepen divides between trading blocs.
• Energy price spikes: If Russia can’t sell oil to India and China, the ripple could jack up global oil prices, hitting fuel and transportation everywhere.

India’s Response: “Unfair, Unjustified, Unreasonable”

India has pushed back hard on Trump’s earlier tariffs, calling them—and any hikes—“unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable” (India Today). Official statements repeat that India needs affordable energy to support its huge population, and argue that punishing India hurts Western consumers just as much.

Key points from Delhi:

• Indian officials vow to protect their economic security and may retaliate with tariffs of their own.
• India’s trade ministry says any new US-EU tariffs would violate World Trade Organization (WTO) norms.
• New Delhi is also looking to build closer ties with China and Russia as a balancing move against Western pressure.

Recent actions include stepping up trade with both Russia and China and restarting direct flights and trade talks with Beijing. India insists its oil deals are based on market needs, not politics.

China’s Reaction: Warning of Retaliation

China isn’t mincing words about the proposed tariffs. Chinese leaders threaten “strong countermeasures” if the US and EU target their exports with blanket duties. They call the tariff plan an act of “economic coercion” and vow to push back via the WTO and with duties of their own on Western products.

Highlights from Beijing’s response:

• China points to the risk of triggering a global recession, citing studies like the MERICS Top China Risks 2025.
• Chinese officials hint at new tariffs on European and American goods, possibly including cars and tech exports.
• Stronger alliances with Russia and India help Beijing weather the storm, increasing trade flows between all three countries despite Western pressure.

China continues to snap up Russian energy and supports Moscow in international forums, tightening the triangle between the three large economies (Reuters).

Russia’s Stance: Defiant, Counting on Asia

Moscow’s reaction is clear. Russian leaders see the tariffs as a Western effort to isolate Russia but feel confident that support from India and China can keep trade lifelines open. Russian oil remains key to its war chest, and leaders say they will look for more buyers in Asia and Africa if new barriers appear.

• Russian officials claim the West’s moves will backfire, arguing that energy and food prices for the world will spike if their exports are forced out.
• The Kremlin continues to deepen energy partnerships with India and China, signing new long-term supply deals.
• Russian diplomats warn that rising tariffs will “damage prospects for peace” by hardening positions instead of encouraging negotiation.

Impact on Ongoing Peace Talks and Global Stability

The threat of massive tariffs adds another layer of tension to high-stakes Ukraine negotiations. US and EU officials argue that raising the cost of business for Russian oil buyers will force Moscow to the table. But reactions from India, China, and Russia show just how tough that road will be.

• Indian and Chinese opposition complicate any proposal for joint global pressure.
• Russia becomes less willing to discuss ceasefires under heavy economic attack, according to recent talks tracked by Bloomberg.

With tariffs hanging over world trade, nobody can ignore the risk of a trade war turning into a global slowdown. For leaders in Delhi, Beijing, and Moscow, the next months will test not only alliances but the world’s ability to find common ground in the face of growing economic storms.

Conclusion

Trump’s tariff proposal puts the spotlight on the financial heart of Russia’s war in Ukraine: oil sales to India and China. If the US and Europe act together, hitting imports from these economies with tariffs as high as 100%, Russian revenues could take a real hit. But this strategy also brings serious risks, from higher global prices to deeper trade wars that ripple far beyond the battlefield.

How the EU responds will shape both the future of economic pressure on Moscow and the tone of ties with India and China. Watch the coming weeks as talks heat up in Brussels and Washington. The choices made could redraw trade flows, set off new alliances, or even open new cracks between global powers.

Thank you for reading. Where do you think Europe should draw the line between economic pain and political gain? Share your view below or join the discussion on social media.